As coronavirus vaccines ship out across the country, the City-Cowley County Health Department said it is unsure how much — if any — of the vaccine will make it to Cowley County in the immediate future.
But when it does arrive, the health department painted a dire picture if no one takes it.
According to a news release from the health department, public health precautions would need to continue to remain in place over the next three years if no one takes the vaccine.
The health department added that pandemic infection would likely continue as currently present with peaks and valleys for at least 36 months and at minimum, 50% of the county’s estimated population of 35,000 people would become ill during that time period.
The City-Cowley County Health Department estimates that 900 to 1,200 more people would die throughout that three-year period.
So far, the health department estimates 30 people in Cowley County have died because of the virus since March.
However, the health department cautioned that total so far is likely understated due to hospitalizations occurring outside of Cowley County and the lack of reporting of mortality cases to the county.
“These (deaths) must only be reported to the state and in times of high hospitalizations and illness rates, we will not know for several weeks about some deaths,” the City-Cowley County Health Department said in its news release. “It is extremely important that we continue to take all the safeguards necessary to prevent the continuing spread of COVID-19.
“We still do not know what the long-term health effects will be for people that get this virus and have serious illness that they eventually recover from.”
The health department said the vaccines have been shown to be at least 94%t effective against COVID-19 infection and 100 percent effective against severe COVID-19 infection.
“That means that you have a 4% chance that you can still catch the virus even after taking the vaccine,” the health department stated. “But that if you are infected that you will not become severely ill.”
The vaccine is a modern mRNA vaccine that does not contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus in any form (live or attenuated). It has been designed because modern medicine can now map DNA and the human genome. The vaccine will carry a message of how to build immunity to our bodies.
The vaccine will use RNA that will instruct our muscle tissue in the arm to create a spike protein that is a copy of the same spike protein that surrounds the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
(Table/statistics courtesy City-Cowley County Health Department)
“Basically, it is this spike protein (fatty matter) that attaches to receptors in the sinus cavities and respiratory system when we are exposed and allows the virus to multiply and infect people,” the health department said.
The spike protein will form, and the immune response will begin.
Antibodies will be created that eliminate the spike protein and will remember it but only in a limited number. Then in 3-4 weeks there will be a second vaccination, a booster shot like with other vaccines. That inoculation will repeat the process only this time the human body will react by creating a vastly larger number of antibodies that will remain in the system and will exist to eliminate the virus if exposed and infected.
“It truly is a marvel of modern medical science,” the health department stated.
“The projection that currently 2,000 people in the county have contracted COVID-19 is important as we begin our expanded planning for vaccine distribution in the weeks and months ahead,” the health department added.
It is estimated that as many as 1,700 additional people (5% of the population 34,500 x 5% = 1,770) may have been infected and recovered throughout this pandemic period (March – November) without having been tested or having been asymptomatic during their illness.
“If true we would have a natural immunity rate in the county of approximately 10% ( @ 3500 people),” the health department said.
In order to effectively see transmission of COVID-19 diminish an immunity rate of at minimum 75% would need to occur, according to the health department.
This would greatly slow the spread but not stop it entirely as 25% of the population would still provide enough of a group for the virus to be harbored and it does not eliminate exposures that would occur outside of our county.(i.e. people visiting or our residents traveling).
To effectively stop viral transmission, the health department says the county would need to achieve 90% population immunity or higher.
“That means if someone was sick and contagious, the virus would not spread due to the large number of immune folks stopping the spread of the illness,” the health department said.
Children remain the least affected demographic group.
People age 65+ remain the most affected demographic group.
Census data shows that in Cowley County 17% of its population is less than 16 years old (@ 6000 people) and that the population over age 85 is estimated to be <1% (@ 350 people).
The soon to arrive COVID-19 vaccine is recommended for people 16 – 85 years old. (@ 28,500 people).
Survey results to date for Cowley County residents indicate the following when asked about taking a vaccine:
- 60% of people eligible to receive the vaccine will seek it as soon as it is available. (17,100 people)
- 24% state they will likely take the vaccine but want to wait and not be first. (6,840 people)
- 16% say that they do not want any vaccination at all. (4,560 people)
